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– Greetings, I'm John Phillips. Thanks so much for joining me for this PGTV special. Today we'll be talking Dixie with GOP Strategist Austin James. Austin's a GOP Strategist out of the state of Alabama and has participated in many southern campaigns. Austin, thanks so much for joining us. We appreciate it. – [Austin] Thanks for having me, John, appreciate that. – All right, so on the radio show this last week I had Dylan Byers, formerly at Politico, now with CNN, on the show. And we were talking about Hillary's prospects in Iowa and New Hampshire. And he says it doesn't matter (Austin chuckles) who you talk to on the Hillary Campaign, they come back with the same answer when you ask them if they're gonna win in Iowa, if they're gonna win in New Hampshire.

"We're hopeful, but it doesn't matter "because we have a firewall in South Carolina." She thinks she's got black voters all wrapped up and South Carolina's the firewall that will stop the bleeding if the first two states don't go to the right way. – [Austin] Sure. – Do you think that's probably the case, or do you think that that's her being overly optimistic and her team being overly optimistic? – [Austin] Well, I think it's probably a little bit of both. If you– and I think it plays, actually, both sides of the ball, Republican and Democratic. If you look at turnout and you look at the people who are coming to the rallies, specifically in New Hampshire and Iowa, yeah, they're very indicative of Bernie Sanders' support nationally, which is kind of a little bit older, white, very young, white.

And that's problematic for him on a national stage, so I do think they're kind of hedging their bets a little bit, and I think South Carolina and Nevada

offers him an opportunity to make a stronger national case to a wider body of the electorate for sure. – You know, if you look at 2008, it worked the exact opposite way for her. Where she did better, she came in third in Iowa, did better in New Hampshire, and then lost South Carolina because black voters came out for Obama. And that's when Bill Clinton got in trouble and said, "Well, you know, Jesse Jackson wasn't there, "so it's a hometown crowd for him." – Well yeah, that's exactly right. And so I think she is looking for some sort of passing of the torch in that sense. I don't think Bernie Sanders lights a fire under that particular section of the base.

Bernie Sanders actually just had a rally in Alabama, my home state, and the turnout was actually quite interesting, because this populous message works really well in the South, so that is kind of an angle for him. But the turnout was particularly troubling if you're looking at something like Nevada or South Carolina in the sense that it was just all kind of older, white voters. And so I think that's a problem. I don't know– – It's the dad from Family Ties that likes him. – (laughing) Yeah, exactly. – [John] Michael Gross. – And his son, you know, and so, there was a couple– they interviewed a couple of people at the rally, and it was interesting. The younger voters said, "I'm here just to "kind of piss my father off," and the older voters said, "Listen, this idea of 'us versus the billionaires' "is a message that resonates well." You know, Jeff Sessions has that same message as a GOP Senator in Alabama, so, so I think the South plays well in that messaging. So if Hillary can kind of capture some of that momentum, I think she's on the right track. – How does Bernie make inroads with black voters? Because he comes from a very white state, the state of Vermont. He appeals to the granola crowd. That's not what works with black voters. Black voters like Bill Clinton, black voters like Barack Obama. – [Austin] (laughs) Sure. – They don't like Bernie Sanders. What can he do to turn that tide the other way? – Well you know, and that's a good question.

Today, I don't know, and I think because his train is moving on core messages that maybe don't resonate in urban areas in particular, the answer is I don't know.

I think his play is to be

a kind of a populous candidate, and kind of get some of them, but not all of them.

That's kind of what we're seeing now, and it'd be interesting to see how they pivot when they get to South Carolina. – Where is Hillary vulnerable with black voters? If he were to launch an attack, and I think that the attacks that Donald Trump has launched against her have been very successful so far with the intimidation of women, that Bill's allegedly sexually assaulted. – [Austin] (chuckles) Yeah. – The emails, at all. And that's worked with white voters in Iowa, it's worked with white voters in New Hampshire, but it just, it hasn't changed the numbers at all in South Carolina. There's gotta be some Achilles heel for her.

– I think what it is, I think it's the black youth vote. Or the minority youth vote, if you will. If you look at things kind of– my background is a little more technical, a little more digital. And if you look at the trends,

the African-American voters of the younger generation,

kind of turn their nose up to Hillary. And they look at her kind of pandering to them as almost humorous, and so I think that is also a base that Bernie does well with, is just minority– I'm sorry, millennials and youth in general. So I think there is a move for him there. Connecting the dots, obviously, is what his campaign is probably thinking about. – How about using that video of her in the black church where she lapses into an Amos 'n' Andy drawl? – (laughs) Well, I'll tell you – [John] And showing that – [Austin] what, it's been– – [John] over and over and over again– – [Austin] Well, it's been one after another, during,

the Rosa Parks Anniversary they had a–

her logo changed to have the icon of what was supposed to be Rosa Parks on the "H" of her logo, but they put it on the backside of the logo.

And that just became a meme in and of itself. So it's quite obvious that what they're doing is– and again, I think it's a small section that– the section that is tuned into digital media, a little bit younger, a little bit sharper, tends to not fall for those. – I think there has to be some kind of vulnerability, because Barack Obama was a black man, or half-black, half-white, and was accepted by black voters as the first black president, not Bill Clinton. And so they got behind him with the enthusiasm and with the zeal that we haven't seen in many, many, many years. Hillary Clinton is an old, rich, white, blonde woman who sat on the Board of Directors at Walmart.

There has to– maybe it's (Austin laughs) just a biographical attack – [Austin] Sure. – where you go after her.

– I think there's this interesting kind of Bradley effect. Bradley, so he ran for Governor of California in 1982, and his polls showed him way ahead. At the end he didn't win and people were kind of scratching their head, "Why?" and it was kind of this racial parody where people didn't want to say they weren't voting for the black candidate for fear of being called racist, and so, I think Trump kind of plays into some of that reverse Bradley effect, but before we get to that,

I just don't think that she's gonna see the same enthusiasm. I think there's not this, 'what's her Achilles heel?' I just don't know that they're playing with the same,

the same– they're not playing the same game as Barack Obama played, if that makes sense, they don't have the enthusiasm. – [John] Could you envision a scenario where she loses South Carolina? Or is that just not in the cards? – I could. Absolutely I could. And again, obviously much more in tune with what the GOP is doing, and how they've changed their elections, but yeah, I mean, I could. If the same fear that I think Marco Rubio has in South Carolina. (stutters) You know, his head strategist is from South Carolina, they should have great inroads there. I think there's a fear that they could lose. I think Hillary– this is an election where anything can happen, and I think what you are seeing is in very interesting fashion, this populous meme plays on both sides of the ball, right? So Bernie and Trump are playing very well in Alabama and South Carolina, et cetera. Because there is this 'us against the billionaires.' And unfortunately at the end of the day, Hillary falls into the camp for which these kind of scrappy candidates are fighting against, and I think there is some sort of play there. I don't know what it is strategically yet, but I think there's a play for them. – Do you think it's just waiting for the wave to come in and being in the water at the right time where you've got the momentum of Iowa, – [Austin] Sure. – you have the momentum of New Hampshire, and that momentum carries to South Carolina. It's just a rising tide, we'll just lift the sails. – Sure, I think he probably plays better in Nevada at the end of the day. I think he's probably got a plan there. There's an interesting mockumentary, if you will, on Showtime now called The Circus, where they're following these candidates. And it's interesting, they're kind of giving this human side to Bernie, which we don't normally see.

And I think Bernie Sanders, that's probably a play for them. That's the one thing where (mumbles) criticism about Hillary Clinton, is, where is her laughter, when it comes out, it's fake, where's her human side, when it comes out, it's fake. So I think you're starting to see them do more of that. And I think that that probably will play with those who do turn out, I don't think you're gonna see the same kind of turnout you saw with Barack Obama. – Let's ship to the Republican side here for a second. You mentioned Marco Rubio. – [Austin] Sure. – His strategists are saying that he's got a 3-2-1 strategy where you come in third in Iowa, which will probably happen. – Mm-hmm. – [John] Second New Hampshire, he's polling third right now. – [Austin] Correct. – And then first in South Carolina, where I haven't seen a poll that indicates that he has any shot at all (Austin laughs) at winning South Carolina. – [Austin] Sure. – Can this 3-2-1 strategy actually play out, or is he gonna come in third in South Carolina too? – [Austin] So I think, I think Marco Rubio, he's playing the turtle and the hare game, and he's the turtle. The way that these kind of primaries have been restructured, very much favor Jeb as the nominee, but you know, in Jeb's void, Marco Rubio fills that place, and he has the money and the connections to play the long game. So if Cruz and Trump

do anything to cannibalize themselves in these first two primaries, there is a very real chance that Marco Rubio steps up and continues to make inroads. Especially Super Tuesday. – But that's not where the cannibalization's going on. The cannibalization right now – [Austin] (laughs) Sure. is between Jeb and Rubio – [Austin] Sure, sure. – because Mike Murphy is spending all of his money going after Rubio in New Hampshire trying to prevent Rubio (Austin laughs) from coming in second there, and it's working. – Yeah, I agree. – [John] Not helping Jeb. – Well I agree, I think there is an establishment denial going on in D.C. That's certainly the case in– the people that I talk to

certainly reference that in a roundabout way.

It's interesting. It's very, very interesting. I don't think it's, and I think you'd love this, I don't think it's out of the realm of possibility that Trump takes what he does in Iowa, wins New Hampshire, or at least comes in second, and uses that to catapult himself all the way through. And especially when you get to these Super Tuesdays,

races– I think he plays very well in the South. And if you look at friends and family and if you look at strategists, they're saying, "Hey listen, this guy has real support." And it's this reverse Bradley effect where people, maybe they don't go out and say it. They don't wear his hat, they don't put the Obama sticker like they did, kind of a certain pride issue, but they will come out and vote. And I don't know if you saw the news, but Jeff Sessions' senior policy adviser just moved to– – [John] I saw that, yeah. – Yeah, and– – [John] How big is that? – Well, I think it's big in two ways. One, Sessions is a populous guy. His message is very much Trump's, and very much Bernie's. It's the policies that are a little different. And so I think it's huge for the influence that he's gonna have in that state and the surrounding states, but bigger, it's a kind of a shift for Trump. And his messaging is saying, "Hey listen, "I'm really serious about this. I'm really serious "about talking about immigration, "but then walking the walk." And so Sessions' senior policy adviser was very good on immigration, so he's making moves that I think back up a lot of the rederick that he said. And so I think that's gonna be a difficult maneuver for someone like Cruz. – Is there anyway that Trump loses South Carolina? Every poll I've seen shows him way out ahead of everyone else. – [Austin] Sure. I think there is, and I think that's, it's him kind of imploding. I don't think there's anything at this point you can do outside of that, so it's one of those interesting battles where his arrogance could be his downfall. And I certainly think between the message you have to have in Iowa, and the message you have to have in New Hampshire, there's a lot of room in between for him to say something to the wrong person that could really influence South Carolina. – Yeah, but if you're advising Marco Rubio or Ted Cruz and you're sitting (Austin laughs) in the room with them and they're saying, "What do I have to do to win?" and you say, "Sit back, do nothing, and wait for him to implode." They don't want to hear that. – Well sure, and also again, like I said. If you look at the structure of how these races are going, to these kind of 'winner take all' after March 15th, where Florida was designed to kind of give Jeb the edge, so they think he's gonna win it, he gets 99 delegates, that gives him a huge up. A lot of this restructuring is designed for grass roots and momentum candidates to fall off over time.

So I think Marco Rubio has, again, the connections, the ground game, the team, and certainly the money to play a longer game. Certainly. – [John] Let's talk Super Tuesday, we have a lot of southern states. they call it the SCC Primary that are voting that day. And Cruz is putting all of his chips on Super Tuesday. He thinks that he can really make inroads in a lot of these places, Alabama, Georgia, Texas, his home state.

How many states does Ted Cruz have to win on Super Tuesday to remain a viable option? – Sure. I don't know. I mean, it depends on how these first three states play out, these first four states. In– and I'll be honest, everything that I'm looking at tells me if Donald does not trip, I think Cruz is stuck in the shadow. Because Cruz doesn't have a maneuver play. He can't go to Rubio's side. The establishment is– there's plenty of articles documenting– the establishment is certainly not looking forward to him making moves, and so any kind of shadow money is gonna be against him if he starts to rise.

So yeah, I don't know the answer to that.

It's really gonna be interesting to see how New Hampshire plays and then how he goes into South Carolina. He spent a lot of time there, but it doesn't seem to be reflecting any kind of movement up or down. – And you have a lot fewer options if you don't make it happen by Super Tuesday. – Correct. – [John] If there's no one that really catches fire and Donald Trump is just running the table (Austin laughs) and winning everywhere, and he wins on Super Tuesday, – [Austin] Correct, correct. – where do you go if you're Marco Rubio? Where do you go if you're Ted Cruz? – I agree, and so– I think if that point you start to be thinking kind of about how do you lick your wounds…

Yeah, no, I agree. I don't know. It's gonna be interesting. The way that they've done this thing is they've condensed it down, right? And so again, doing that means that if you're catching fire in any one place, you're not– you don't get a 'winner take all', there's proportional delegates kind of given out. So if you catch fire and you win, you don't win all of them, you just win your piece. And I think that is incredibly troubling for both sides.

It plays better for Marco Rubio, who has the ability for this longer tail. The only problem is Donald Trump is self-funded, so he has this potential endless supply of cash. And so I think everything that they did would've served Marco Rubio well over Ted Cruz in any other race, but this year is interesting because Donald Trump throws a wrench in everything. – That's right, and with the changing nature of the media too, it's less regional. So people in the South are all watching him on Fox. It used to be where you were just playing to Iowa, you were just playing to New Hampshire, you were just playing to those early voting states, but everyone in Alabama's watching right now. Everyone in Georgia's watching right now. – Correct, and this is what I think is interesting, and I was having a conversation with a friend the other day, and he's a Democrat, and he's a Democrat strategist. I said, "I think this is the moment when you start to see "and if we look back in history, this kind of grey area "between candidates and celebrities. "Because the candidates are becoming "a reflection of the media, they're becoming "a reflection of the people that are digesting the media." And so Donald Trump plays well to that. His–

Fox News used to be something we would pander to. This is something that we would do anything to get their love, and he turns his nose up, and people love him for it. So it's interesting, it's almost like the movie The Gladiator, where everything he did was in defiance of order, and people loved him for it.

It'll be interesting, it's gonna be interesting going forward. – Can you think of any other GOP candidate that would be willing to take on Roger Ailes?

– You know what was interesting is, and now I kind of want your opinion on this, the Mike Bloomberg talk. – Yes. – [Austin] Kind of, where do you fall on that? – Well, I think Bloomberg, if it's Trump,

Hillary and Bloomberg, I think Bloomberg takes more votes from Hillary than Trump. Because he is essentially a liberal,

but he's a liberal without all of the baggage that Hillary has, – [Austin] Sure. – without all the ethical baggage. So if you want to vote for someone that'll bring nanny state policies in, and a redistribution of wealth, and all that sort of thing, you can go for him without having to sign up for the emails and Benghazi and the intimidation of women, and all that other stuff. – So you think Trump walks it at that point? – I think he could win with 40%. Same way her husband did in '92. – Fair point. – All right. – [Austin] Interesting. – We're out of time, but thank you so much for coming in. – [Austin] Thank you. – We appreciate it. – [Austin] Absolutely. Very much appreciated. – All right, I want to thank GOP Strategist Austin James for being here today. Be sure to check out his website, pixelsandpolitics.com. I'm John Phillips, thanks so much for watching.

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